Track That Trade 110913 AAPL Iron Condor

It’s time for a new Track That Trade, and this time the plan is to follow it more closely.

The Trade

With AAPL trading @ $385.44, I opened an AAPL iron condor position.

Sold AAPL Nov 440/450 call spread.
Sold AAPL Nov 320/330 put spread
Collected: $270 (or perhaps $275) with the midpoint: $277.50
The short options each have a delta near 17.

This is a hypothetical trade. It did NOT make this trade in my account. I am not saying this as a disclaimer, but it is important that Members recognize that this trade is being followed for educational purposes. I think it’s a decent trade, but I am not recommending it.

NOTE: AAPL has an earnings announcement due October 18, 2011. This is a very real potential market-moving event. A conservative trader could elect to wait until after the news is announced – and IV decreases – before trading an AAPL iron condor. I’d prefer to enter now because implied volatility is generally high around the options universe. AAPL current IV is in the 68th percentile [IV has been lower 68% of the time over the past 600 trading days].

The images

Quotes

The red arrows point to the bid/ask markets for each of the credit spreads, as well as for the whole iron condor. I must say that it is a pleasure to see these markets after dealing with the mile-wide bid/ask spreads of the big indexes. I’m assuming we can get filled at $2.70 when the bid is $2.55 and the offer is $3.00.

This spread is fairly straightforward. Each option is reasonable far out of the money. However, with an earnings announcement pending on Oct 18, this trade is not as cozy at it appears.

The profit/loss picture is pretty clear. We do very well if AAPL decides that it likes where it is trading and sits tight.

Risk graphs

Profit/Loss Graph for AAPL Iron Condor

At Expiration

Iron Condor at Expiration

Broken-Wing Butterfly

In a recent webinar, I talked about the similarity and differences of the broken-wing butterfly (BWB) and the iron condor. As we talk about the iron condor above, let’s include some mention of the BWBs that appear to be similar to the iron condor.

I can see two reasonable choices when picking a BWB for comparison purposes. In the first, I use the same 10-point call and put spreads that complete the iron condor. This time, the spreads are owned and not sold. To generate the cash (our target profit), I sold the 20-point spreads that complete the broken-wing butterfly.

BWB #1: The Trade

Long 320/330P spread; short 300/320P spread

    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 330 puts
    Sold 20 AAPL Nov 320 puts
    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 300 puts

    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 440 calls
    Sold 10 AAPL Nov 450 calls
    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 470 calls

    Credit collected: $85 ($25 for the call spread and $60 for the puts)

First BWB; quotes

First Broken-Wing Butterfly

At Expiration
First BWB at expiration

BWB #2: The Trade

The 2nd choice for a BWB involves building the position around maintaining the same short options as in the iron condor.

Long 330/340 put spread; Short 310/330P spread
Long 430/440 call spread; Short 440/460 call spread

    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 340 puts
    Sold 20 AAPL Nov 330 puts
    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 310 puts

    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 430 calls
    Sold 10 AAPL Nov 440 calls
    Bot 10 AAPL Nov 460 calls

    Credit collected: $115 ($45 for the call spread and $70 for the puts) Updated

2nd BWB


2nd BWB

At expiration

2nd BWB at expiration

Update #1. Discussion

Time decay

One point that is worthy of discussion is the large difference in appearance between the profit/loss graphs for expiration and those of one day prior. Depending on the stock price (compared with the strike price), the one day change is often dramatic. I think we are all aware that option time decay accelerates as expiration nears, but there are certain situations in which that time decay can be dramatic.

I must mention that if we can gain a LOT of extra profit by waiting that last, final day, then it must be mentioned – in fact, it deserves a warning – that holding, hoping to earn extra profits, presents an opportunity that can easily justify the risk. (Updated).

Let’s look at last figure above. It represents the P/L graph for a broken wing butterfly. The purple dotted line represents theoretical profit on Thursday, Nov 17, 2011. The blue dotted line represents P/L at the close of trading on Friday, Nov 18, 2011, the final day that the November options trade. The curved black line represents P/L for today.

Notice that from today through that Nov 17 date, we can earn roughly $4,000 if AAPL moves to the perfect price point (Either short strike price). Good profit. In fact, I know that I would never hold onto this trade that long, but this is a very nice potential profit. However, it is small when compared with the possible collect that comes from holding the position all day, Friday. If all ends well on that single day, the value of the position can increase to $10,000.http://www.mdwoptions.com/Premium/wp-admin/admin.php?page=woothemes_framework_settings

It’s true that I dislike holding positions into expiration, and prefer to take the profits when they become attractive enough to take. That’s because holding runs the risk of the stock moving away from the profit area – into the unprofitable range. However, the risk/reward for holding butterfly type positions – where we are short TWO at-the-money options per spread (as compared with an iron condor in which we are short only one such option per spread) – is large, compared with risk. These positions become tempting to hold.

Thus, this temptation may result in the broken-wing butterfly trader holding when the iron condor trader has to exit. There is no huge reward when holding an iron condor to the end. [Yes, when the short option is near being ATM, there is substantial time premium. However, it is only for ONE option and not for TWO. That changes the risk reward by a substantial amount. More than that, holding this long has left the iron condor trader exposed to risk every day. That is not something to overlook, and I still believe it is best for the IC trader not to find him/herself in this trade when expiration is so near].

The BWB may offer less cash upfront, but it does offer the low probability chance of earning a substantial profit. The difficulty for the iron condor trader (who is looking at broken-wing butterflies as an alternative strategy) is to decide whether to adhere to ‘normal’ trade practice and exit early – or whether to trade butterflys differently. Risk/reward is not the same, and holding is often more rewarding.

For comparison, look at the second figure above. The P/L barely changes from that penultimate day to the last. There is no possible profit surge for the iron condor. There is the time decay for one day. If the IC trader decides to go for the final day’s decay when the stock is near the short strike price, a market move through that strike can prove to be very costly. The BWB trader has less to lose. This is one significant difference between trading BWBs and ICs.

How the strategies differ

There is a big difference between broken-wing butterflys and iron condors when it comes time to decide how long to hold the trade.

  • The iron condor trader earns cash incrementally as time passes. At some point in time, when nothing bad has happened, we accumulate enough profit to exit the trade. That means we leave some potential profits on the table, but in exchange, risk is eliminated
  • The iron condor trader faces risk when the short option is not far out of the money. The trader can gain the remaining time premium, but the potential loss is larger than that possible gain – even though the loss is limited.
  • The BWB trader faces a different situation. He/she is short twice as many options that are threatening to become at the money options – and thsoe are the options with the large time premium. Thus, the possible benefit from holding for is larger (and tempting)
  • The risk of holding is less troublesome for the BWB trader. The possible gain often exceeds the possible loss, and that alone may convince some BWB traders to hold ’em, rather than fold ’em.

In exchange for accepting less initial cash, the BWB trader has more flexibility when it is time to wind down the position.

Update #2. Why this iron condor?

When we trade, we are placing a bet (I hate to compare it to gambling, but in reality, that is what we are doing). We have been taught that we are making an investment, but to me tat is simply a wager that our money will become worth more later than it is worth now. That’s the definition of a gamble.

Many factors go into choosing a specific iron condor to trade, and it is not so easy fr me to make a selection when my money is not on the line. I also know that many traders prefer to sell short-term options.Nevertheless, I must make some choice for a Track That Trade entry.

Stock choice: AAPL was recommended by jr, and I am happy to accommodate.

Expiration choice: I chose November options for two reasons. I do not like the front month trades in general, but this time the company is going to issue an earnings report during October expiration week (Oct 18). There is no reason to sell Oct options at this time because it will be costly to buy them back when implied volatility rises in anticipation of that earnings report. If we are going to hold through that earnings announcement, I’d rather collect the higher premium available by selling Nov options.

Minimalist Trade Plan: I hope to exit after earnings are announced and the implied volatility of the options shrinks. However, we must wait until that time because it is possible that the earnings news will result in a significant price change for AAPL. At this point, I do not a have any specific adjustment plans because this is not a typical situation. If the stock price changes sufficiently, I’ll adjust by making a plan as the stock is moving higher or lower. If the stock gaps because of news, none of those plans would apply. So we wait and see.

Strikes: For that reason, I chose options that are fairly far out of the money (FOTM). The 330 put and 440 calls are sufficiently FOTM to provide a sense of comfort for me. However, I do recognize that the option’s delta (near 17) warms me that they are not really that FOTM. There is a decent chance that either of these options can move ITM. Thus, although I would like to see time pass and earnings day arrive, we may have to make adjustments prior to that date.

For now (AAPL = 392.39 as I write this post), the call delta is 19 and the put delta is 13 – and there is no need to make any changes to the position.

Update #3. Sept 16, 2011. Is it adjustment time?

Iron condor: APPL has rallied to the 400 level (orange arrow in image below), and our short call options (iron condor) are 40 points, or 10% out of the money. Let’s take a look at the market quotes:

Sep 19. AAPL ~400. Quote for iron condor and the first BWB

Note that the market for the iron condor (red arrow) gives us a mid-point quote of $2.68 (corrected). This represents a small profit (opened for $2.70 credit)

The short calls carry a 23 delta, and the puts, 10. This is off balance because we are are 13 delta short per iron condor. However, the trade is currently profitable, 10% OTM is still too early for an adjustment, and the 23 delta may be higher than we prefer, but it is hardly cause for alarm.

There is no need to adjust

Broken wing butterflys: The market (lines labeled Call BWB and Put BWB) for our first BWB shows a midpoint of $0.49 (corrected). We collected $85 for the position. There is no immediate danger and thus, no adjustment is necessary.

The second BWB (image below) is quoted with a midpoint of $0.97. We collected $1.15 for making the trade, so this one is holding up nicely. No reason to adjust.

Risk Graphs

Iron Condor. AAPL ~400. Sep 16, 2011



First BWB. Sep 19. AAPL ~400

2ns BWB. Sep 19. AAPL ~400

Update. September 19, 2011

One thing is certain. APPL requires watching. When I noticed that ita was down about 4 points this morning, I ignored the position. Now, just after 1PM CT, I see that the stock is up 10 points. So lets take another look.

The delta of our short option (in the iron condor has reached 30. There is no doubt that this is a worry. The question is what should be done. Here is the current quote page.

September 19 2011. AAPL is $410



The current risk picture:


There are several points to consider:

  • Short 43 delta
  • An increase to 420 (another 10 points) costs $500, assuming IV is unchanged. If IV declines, that is good for the position (note we are short 101 vega. The purple line on the graph represents P/L when IV declines by 15% (IV is current;y ~30)
  • Delta of short option is 30. That is high for many traders

My recommendations, and the action we are taking in managing this trade (Please comment if you disagree or want to suggest alternative action):

  • The 30 delta is worrisome, but because we can stand another 10 points with a loss of $500 (50 cents per iron condor), I’m in favor or doing nothing today
  • It would cost roughly $3.20 to exit. Not fun, but it is only a loss of $500 and I’m willing to hold a bit longer. Our short is still 12% OTM. Note that this mindset can be continued indefinitely. It is imperative that at some point we cannot consider that we are still 40,40,20…points OTM and that we are ok. We will NOT be okay much longer
  • The short put has a delta of only 8, but is too costly to cover the put spread (66 cents at the midpoint)

This position cannot be ignored much longer.

BWB #1

First BWB. Has good protection and short spread (450/470) is farther OTM

How is this trade performing? The bid/ask midpoint is 97 cents. We collected 85 cents to make the trade. Position delta is -29. Nothing to do here.

BWB #2

BWB#2. All strikes are lower than in other BWB. Thus, closer to the money.



Here’s the bid/ask quote: The midpoint is $1.48, and this represents a loss (trade made at $1.15)

Quotes for BWB #2


This BWB is in more trouble than either of the other two positions. True, we own the CTM 10-pont spread, and that’s good. However, the risk comes with the 20-point spread that we sold – and that has the 440 and 460 strikes. Our short option is only 40 points out of the money. If this were half of an iron condor trade, I would want to do something to reduce risk. The fact that it is a BWB gives us a little more wiggle room.

When managing risk, it is important to pay attention to the danger (short spread) and not believe that limited protection is sufficient to guard against the bigger loss. I recognize that the 430/440 call spread is good to own, but the protection is limited to 50% of the loss from the 20-point spread, and we can still lose $10,000 on this trade. We must remain alert.

September 20, 2011

This position has turned on us, and the fact that we are considering an adjustment almost every day is not a good sign. Thus, anyone who decided to trade an APPL iron condor may want to exit the trade in safety. The midpoint market for the iron condor is $3.96. We can probably pay $4. That would be a loss of $1.3o per, or $1,300. The very conservative player should consider reducing size or exiting.

For the purposes of discussion, let’s hold. In real life, I would still be holding.

AAPL is now over $420 and positions have become far more risky to hold


Let’s see other Nov options. Perhaps rolling down is a good idea. Note that the stock price changes for each figure. I’m writing and collecting the numbers as quickly as I can.

Higher strikes. Do we roll down?



To me, the most appealing roll is to the 475/485 call spread.

Let’s take a look at the risk graph, as well as a close-up.

Risk Graph for Iron Condor position

Close-up of iron condor risk

We each have our own comfort zones, but in my opinion, it’s time for all but the most aggressive traders to make some adjustment. It does not have to be as large as exiting the trade.

I believe it is best to do something right now.

Let's roll down. Updated prices


We can cover the current short (Nov 440/450C) by paying $325.
We can sell the 475/485 spread (delta of short option is 19) for something between $1.25 and $1.30 [Note that in the updated image above, the 475/485 call spread bid is much lower – while the spread we want to buy remains the same. Even a few minutes can make a difference!

This trade moves the short calls 35 points lower. I know that I could choose the 470/480 spread instead. One big reason for not making that trade is that the new trade would be well away from delta neutral The put short has a delta of only 6, and the spread is still too costly to close. I can live with the delta imbalance for now.

The trade:
Buy a condor (this is a condor trade. Not an iron condor).

Buy 10 AAPL Nov 440/450 call spreads and sell 10 AAPL Nov 475/485 call spreads.
Pay a debit of $2.00.

We now only have a cash credit of $0.70 remaining, but that is not my primary concern here. It’s important to reduce risk. Note that I have no objection to rolling to calls with slightly higher strikes, if you find that suitable for you. For this post, I’ve chosen to be less aggressive for the reasons stated.

New position:

Short 10 AAPL Nov 320/330P spreads; short 10 AAPL Nov 375/385C spreads.
Remaining Net credit: $0.70

New iron condor quotes



Adjusted iron condor



Close-up for adjusted Iron Condor



Risk has been reduced. I’d like to cover the put spread, but it is far too costly here.

Update September 21, 2011. The Broken-Wing Butterflies

There is no problem with the first BWB. The position is short the 450/470 call spread and we can wait before taking any action.

However, BWB #2 is short the 440/460 call spread, and that is too close to being ITM for comfort.

In the broken-wing butterfly (BWB), the iron condor is accompanied by a built-in adjustment. In this example we own 10 AAPL Nov 430/440 call spreads as protection for the 10 AAPL Nov 440/460 spreads we are short. That protection is excellent, but incomplete.

It is very important to make the following statement:

Positions that have been adjusted once are not immune from requiring an additional adjustment. We have not technically made an adjustment to this trade. However, the BWB can be considered to be an iron condor with an early adjustment.

That is the situation here. The 20-point call spread is too risky (for me) to hold as is. Let’s consider the situation.

Sep 21. AAPL ~ 418. BWB # 2

The midpoint quote for the BWB is $2.02. There is no way to hide or ignore the loss (Collected $1.15 to open the position). However, the main focus on this trade is to turn it into something we still want to own.

Call portion of iron condor

The 20-point spread is quoted with a midpoint of $5.55. We can buy some of our short 10-lot position. That would leave us with a trade that is uncomfortable for most of us because the short spread is still at a risky level with the short call (440s) carrying a 37 delta.

Covering all 10-lots makes more sense to me. Once again, as we did with the ‘plain iron condor’ trade above, rolling down is my preferred adjustment. We could consider rolling out to December, but I prefer to stay with November options – but only if there is a decent-looking trade. I will not force a November trade. In fact, if nothing looks attractive, it is best to exit the trade, take the loss, and move on.

The 2nd Broken Wing Butterfly. Sep 21. AAPL ~419

As is visible in the graph, we are short ‘only’ 50 delta, but this stock has been making good-sized moves lately. The graph also shows that there is not much room on the upside before we begin to lose money at a more rapid rate. It’s best to manage risk with a position modification (adjustment).

Adjustment

I looked at two possible 20-point spreads. One of these will be the new short in the broken-wing butterfly. There is an
other special idea that is worth emphasizing:

When we pay the debit required to roll our short call spread to another AAPL November call spread, it makes no sense to continue to own the 430/440 call spread.

Why? This spread provides limited protection (it can only be worth $10 at expiration) and is trading near $4. We will be paying a debit to roll the 20-point spread, and it is a smart idea [although seldom mentioned] to collect cash (to reduce the cost of rolling) by also rolling our long spread.

That new 10-point spread must offer adequate protection for the position. And it will. The broken-wing butterfly trade is an iron condor with more than adequate protection. It has one 10-poiint spread protecting one 20-point spread. That is plenty of protection. As is obvious, it is no guarantee of profits. it does not remove the need for a future adjustment, but it does allow us to hold the position longer than if it were simply an iron condor. Note: Holding longer is not the same as ignoring the trade and holding to expiration.

Two candidates for rolling


Above we see quotes for the 460/480 (midpoint is $3.45) call spread and the 470/490 (midpoint, $2.55). I’m choosing to sell the 470/490 call spread because

  • This stock has been volatile and we still have a earnings report due in mid-October
  • The $90 difference is significant, but I’m willing to accept less cash
  • I prefer to sell the 20-delta call (Nov 470) rather than the 25-delta call (Nov 460)
  • Midpoint difference is $3 ($5.55 and $2.55). Let’s assume it costs $3.20 to roll

Having made that choice, then we will want to own the 460/470 call spread to complete the BWB.

Thus, to roll, we buy one BWB (to exit) and sell another (to open).

Current protection: AAPL Nov 430/440 call spread


Sell the spread above (midpoint, $3.95) and buy the spread below (midpoint; $1.95).
Let’s assume a cash credit of $1.80.

Total cost to roll the entire broken-wing butterfly: $1.40.
We now own this position at a net COST of $0.25. The original credit has been used to make the adjustment. That makes it unlikely that we can end with a profit. Note that there is a chance to take some csh out of this trade, but that will require some time to pass and for the stock to be well positioned.

If you are in the school that never turns a spread into a likely loss, then your psyche may be happier if you exit the trade instead.

I urge you NOT to FORCE an adjustment that costs less – for the sole purpose of giving yourself a chance to come out a winner. The primary reason for making an adjustment to a risky position is to reduce that risk. The second motivation is to continue t own a position that you WANT to own.

Worrying about the profitability of the trade is NOT a top priority. Or at least it should not be. I do recognize that not everyone believes this to be true and those traders make plays that take into consideration the overall profitability. If you do that – please be CERTAIN that the newly adjusted position is not too risky to own.

The 'top' half of broken-wing butterfly. The 'protection'



New Position. BWB #2, after rolling


The new position is a broken-wing butterfly. This, when making this adjustment, we did not simply roll 20-point call spread (one half of the iron iron condor portion of the BWB). We rolled the entire broken-wing butterfly. As noted above, the rationale for doing this is a) roll the risky short spread and also roll the long spread to reduce the cost of making this trade.

New Position



I believe that it is more efficient to try to make the whole trade at one time. But the BWB and sell another. However, this is a 6-legged spread and my broker does not allow a trade with more than four legs.

Thus, I would make the trade in two steps. The first is to buy the condor: Buy 10 AAPL Nov 440/460C spreads and sell 10 AAPL Nov 470/490C spreads. Limit price: $3.20 (but I would try to pay less at first)

Then, Sell 10 AAPL Nov 430/440C spread and buy 10 AAPL Nov 460/470C spreads, asking for at least $1.80.

Question: Does anyone read these TTT posts, or are they too detailed? Please give your opinion on this page or in the forum.

September 27, 2011

Since the last adjustment, AAPL has moved lower. Part of the adjustment game is recognizing that we make these position modifications to reduce risk. They cannot always be winning trades.

With the stock price lower (we adjusted at 420 and now it is under 407), let’s take a look at where we stand.

Sep 27, AAPL 407


First, the iron condor

Iron Condor



The midpoint for the iron condor is $1.82 and there is no reason to exit or modify the position. Right now, it’s worth holding.

For traders who ask: Why not reverse the adjustment and go back to the original position, my response is that would not be comfortable for me. I prefer to adjust only when it is necessary to reduce risk of loss. However, if you are more comfortable adjusting to increase profit potential – even when it adds risk to the trade – then that is one style of trading. My objections to that style are:

  • I don’t want to assume that the stock is not going to return to its recent highs
  • I don’t want to face the same risky situation again because it would be very tempting to hold longer – at least until the stock broke through its recent high
  • I believe that trading iron condors can be sufficiently profitable that I do not have to add profit potential at all times. If I now own a less risky (with less profit potential) trade, then I’ll keep it. If I make less money with this trade (than I could have made) that’s acceptable

Broken-Wing Butterfly #1

Broken-Wing Butterfly #1



We chose not to adjust this when AAPL was higher, and there is no reason to do so now. It is slightly (23) off neutral at -23 delta, but the risk graph is acceptable and we will hold this trade.

Broken-Wing Butterfly # 2

Broken-Wing Butterfly #2


No need to do anything.

This update was made as a position check. It’s always a good idea to keep an eye on every trade under management.

September 29, 2011

AAPL has dropped another 10 points to $387. Here is the iron condor (midpoint quote is $2.31):

Iron Condor on Sep 29, 2011

No adjustments needed

October 5, 2011. APPL @ $365

I missed AAPLs low yesterday, but let’s take a look at the positions with AAPL trading near $365 this morning. From my perspective, the trades are a bit delta long, but there is no urgency to make any changes to the positions.

However, there is this warning: An earnings announcement will be made (Oct 18) , and that can result in a major change in the stock price. However, we knew that when the trade was initiated. For now, let’s stay with our trades.

In the graphs below, thew dotted purple line represents the risk graph TWO WEEKS prior to expiration.

Market quotes

Iron Condor

Broken-Wing Butterfly #1

BWB One

BWB Two

BWB Two


If any Member feels that action should be taken, please voice that opinion.

Update. October 11, 2011.

AAPL has been volatile. I suppose that’s to be expected because of recent news: The passing of Steve Jobs, new (?) iphone, and the fact that earnings will be announced soon.

The stock is trading roughly 10% higher than the last time we posted an update.

APPL Iron Condor. Oct 11.



The iron condor midpoint quote is $1.47. Time has been working. Of course, that means little with earnings due on Oct 18.

To cover the BWBs, we would have to pay a bit more than the current midpoints of: 74 cents and 51 cents. Each position shows a small profit (we collected 85 cents and $1.15).

Oct 11. Iron Condor



Oct 11. BWB #1



O ct 11. BWB #2

Oct 14. AAPL continues to rally

AAPL now over 417 and earnings will be announced next Tuesday, Oct 18.

Oct 14. The steam-roller continues to roll



Oct 14. Iron Condor risk graph



The trade in the most trouble is BWB #1

BWB #1



Closeup


Oct 19. AAPL fails to meet earnings expectations. We exit.

Discussion to follow. Here are the closing quotes.

After Earnings. Time to EXit. Oct 19 8:35 am


The iron condor was closed at approximately 45 cents. Waiting a bit longer would have saved a few cents per iron condor.
This trade had been adjusted earlier, and all that remains is a small ($0.25 before expenses) profit.

Although we made our adjustment at the top, I consider this to be an acceptable result. Why? We showed the discipline necessary to prevent a good-sized loss, and that skill is necessary to earn money as a trader. This time the gain wasn’t worth our time, but iron condor trading – and premium selling in general – makes money often enough that it is a viable strategy. But only when risk is managed well.

The broken-wing butterfly spreads are closed at a price near zero. Whether we pay a small debit or collect a small credit makes a bookkeeping difference However, each of these trades earned a profit.

The point about the BWB is that it is a partially hedged iron condor. As such it should be able to withstand a larger move before requiring an adjustment. As a tradeoff, this trade often results in a smaller profit than the iron condor. However, the BWB trader can ‘get lucky’ and collect a decent cash credit – but only if the position is held near expiration and the stock is well priced. Seeking this bonus cash credit is much of a gamble for me.

This trade is now closed.

17 Responses to “Track That Trade 110913 AAPL Iron Condor”


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